XRP Is Back in a Zone It Has Only Seen 4 Times in 13 Years – Monthly RSI Flashes Historic Buy Signal

XRP has had a brutal 2026. The token is down over 50% from its January highs, trading near $1.30. But a long‑term chart from analyst Cryptollica means that the current pain may be a historic buying opportunity. The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for XRP has dropped into a deep oversold zone – a level seen only four times in the asset’s 13‑year market history.

The previous three occurrences marked major cycle resets followed by explosive rallies. Let’s break down the chart and what it means for XRP.

The Monthly RSI Chart – 4 Oversold Resets in 13 Years

The attached monthly XRP/USD chart from TradingView shows the RSI indicator at the bottom. The current RSI reading is approximately 42.45, which the analyst highlights as “OVERSOLD.” The chart is annotated with “4 times OVERSOLD in 13 YEARS” and labels the previous occurrences.

We had a look at the chart, the monthly RSI has dipped below the 45‑50 zone only four times since XRP began trading in 2013. The first time was during the 2013‑2014 bear market, when XRP bottomed near $0.005. The second time was in 2017 before the massive rally to $3.30. The third time was in 2020, just before XRP’s recovery from the COVID crash and the subsequent run to $1.90 in 2021.

Source: X/@Cryptollica

Each of those oversold resets was not a normal pullback. They appeared near major cycle bottom zones. In every case, the XRP price eventually reversed and delivered significant percentage gains over the following months and years.

Now, the fourth oversold reset is happening. XRP’s monthly RSI has fallen back to the same deep zone. The price is near $1.30, far below its 2025 high of $3.65. The crowd is bearish, frustrated by the 50% drop in 2026. But the chart indicates that this is exactly the kind of emotional capitulation that has preceded past rallies.

Comparing Current Levels to Previous Resets

The previous three oversold RSI readings occurred at prices that look tiny today. In 2013, XRP traded for fractions of a cent. In 2017, the bottom was near $0.15. In 2020, XRP bottomed around $0.17 after the March crash. Each time, the monthly RSI fell to similar levels, and each time, long‑term buyers were rewarded.

The current XRP price of $1.30 is not a penny stock anymore. But the RSI reading is relative to the asset’s own history. The indicator shows that selling pressure has reached extremes comparable to past cycle bottoms. That does not guarantee an immediate rebound, but it does indicate that the risk‑reward for long‑term holders is shifting in favor of upside.

It is worth noting that the RSI has not yet reached the extreme lows of 30 or below that some assets hit in bear markets. XRP’s RSI bottomed around 35 in 2020 and near 40 in 2017. The current 42 is close. If the price falls further to $1.00 or $0.90, the RSI could drop into the 30s, which would be an even stronger signal.

Our Take – The Chart Doesn’t Lie, but Patience Is Key

Crypto analyst Cryptollica is right to highlight this rare signal. A monthly RSI oversold reading that has occurred only four times in 13 years is statistically significant. Previous instances led to rallies of 100%, 1,000%, and even 10,000% depending on the timeframe. The current setup is worth paying attention to.

However, there is a catch. The RSI can remain oversold for months in a prolonged bear market. The 2014 bottom took over a year to reverse. The 2020 bottom resolved quickly because of the COVID stimulus. The current macro environment is different: high interest rates, ETF outflows, geopolitical tensions. XRP could drift lower to $1.00 or $0.80 before a recovery begins.

For traders, this is not a “buy now and moon tomorrow” signal. It is a “start accumulating on weakness” signal. For long‑term investors, the $1.20‑$1.30 zone has historically been a good entry point when combined with the RSI reset. The CLARITY Act, ETF inflows, and Ripple’s infrastructure acquisitions (Hidden Road, GTreasury) could act as catalysts once the bear market exhausts itself.

The crowd can keep laughing. The chart will decide. Based on 13 years of data, the fourth oversold reset is a warning to bears and a quiet invitation to bulls. History does not repeat exactly, but it often rhymes.

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