Kaspa Price Prediction: Analyst Predicts KAS Will Drop 95% – But, There's a Catch

A relatively unknown crypto analyst named Sero posted a thread on X. His title: "Why I think $KAS will drop 95%." He argues that Kaspa is stuck in the past, that its mining consumes electricity without useful work, and that newer coins like QUBIC do more with less. He also shills QUBIC heavily.

Some of his points about Kaspa's price action are hard to argue with. But a 95% drop from here would put KAS below $0.01 – effectively killing the project. We do not believe Kaspa is dead. Here is why.

Sero's Bear Case – What Makes Sense and What Doesn't

Sero points out that KAS is down over 80% from its all‑time high. That is true. Kaspa peaked in summer 2024 near $0.24. Bitcoin peaked over a year later in October 2025. Kaspa's peak came early, and the token has bled ever since. It now sits at $0.033 with a market cap near $900 million.

He argues that Kaspa mining uses electricity but does nothing useful with it – no smart contracts, no free transactions. He contrasts Kaspa with QUBIC, a mining protocol that helps train AI models, has no fees, and runs on simple hardware. Money, he says, is moving toward coins with real utility.

The problem with Sero's argument is that he ignores Kaspa's upcoming catalysts such as Toccata hard fork (June 2026), which adds covenants and a zk framework – turning Kaspa into a programmable Layer 1. He also ignores the Kaspa Industrial Initiative, which aims to connect traditional finance to Kaspa's BlockDAG. His thread reads more like a QUBIC shill than a genuine Kaspa obituary.

Read also: Kaspa Supply Shock Brewing? KAS Long‑Term Holders Just Reached a Record High

Kaspa's Price Action Has Been Horrible – But 95% Drop Is Extreme

As a reminder, Kaspa peaked in the summer of 2024 at $0.24 – over a year before Bitcoin's peak in October 2025. That early peak meant Kaspa suffered a long, painful downtrend while other coins were still rallying. Today, KAS is down 86% from its high. That is brutal.

Source: CoinStats

But another 95% drop from here would put KAS below $0.01. That would represent a 99.5% decline from the peak. That is not a correctio, but a death spiral. No major layer‑1 with a strong community, active development, and upcoming upgrades has ever died that way.

Kaspa's community remains one of the strongest in crypto. Long‑term holder supply just hit an all‑time high of 46% of circulating supply. Kaspa's Toccata hard fork is on track for June. The Industrial Initiative is moving forward. A 95% drop would require all of that to fail.

Kaspa's Exchange Reserves Are Falling – A Bullish Signal

Kaspa Daily reported that Kaspa's total reserves on exchanges continue to trend lower as tokens move toward self‑custody and long‑term holding wallets. The chart shared by Kaspa Daily shows known exchange holdings dropping from over 4.1 billion KAS in October 2025 to around 3.5 billion KAS in March 2026. That is a decline of roughly 600 million tokens.

Source: X/@DailyKaspa

At the same time, the KAS price has been falling. That divergence – price down, exchange reserves down – suggests that selling pressure is not coming from exchange dumps. It suggests that holders are moving tokens off exchanges into cold storage. That is typically a long‑term bullish signal.

All in all, Sero's 95% crash prediction is extreme. Kaspa's price action has been horrible for two years, but the project is not dead. The community is strong, exchange reserves are falling, and major upgrades are coming. A drop to $0.01 would require catastrophic failure.

That seems unlikely. More probable: KAS continues to range between $0.025 and $0.045 until the Toccata hard fork delivers.