XRP’s Hidden Signal: Low Leverage + Strong Price = Big Move Loading
XRP price is at $1.37 at press time. It barely moved today and this week. But as usual with XRP, a lot is going on behind the scenes that regular and retail traders do not see. That is why we are here at AxiomFinity – to show you the signals that matter.
One such signal is the Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance. It is sitting at historically low levels even as XRP price holds above $1.35. This divergence – low leverage, steady price – typically precedes a sharp directional move. When traders are not overly leveraged, any shift in sentiment can trigger a fast, clean price change without the usual leverage‑driven chop.
XRP's Hidden Signal – Leverage Ratio at Historic Lows
The chart from CryptoQuant shows the Estimated Leverage Ratio for XRP on Binance over the past two years. The leverage ratio tracks how much futures traders are borrowing relative to their collateral. When it is high, the market is crowded and prone to liquidations. When it is low, the market is clean – less overhead, less risk of cascading squeezes.
Source: CrpytoQuant.com
Currently, the leverage ratio is near the lowest levels seen since early 2024. Yet XRP price is holding above $1.35. In the past, similar setups led to strong moves – either up or down. The market is not stretched. A catalyst, positive or negative, could move price faster than usual. This is the quiet before the storm.
XRP News Today – Rakuten Wallet Fully Launches XRP Trading
Japanese fintech giant Rakuten Wallet has fully launched XRP spot trading and payment services. The integration allows Rakuten Pay's 44 million active users to convert over 3 trillion Rakuten Points (valued at roughly $23 billion) into XRP and spend them at more than 5 million global merchants.
This is a massive real‑world use case. XRP is now a spendable asset for millions of Japanese consumers.
Related news: Ripple's New Partnership with South Korea's KBank
Bill Morgan on XRP's Correlation with Bitcoin
Lawyer Bill Morgan tweeted a clarification. He noted that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin price movement and XRP price movement is quite high, though it varies. XRP's higher volatility means correlated downward moves are often sharper and longer‑lasting, while upside moves require stronger catalysts and are often less pronounced. He emphasized that this correlation has more explanatory power for XRP price moves than the "escrow dump" theory.
In other words, XRP follows Bitcoin directionally, but with amplified swings. A Bitcoin rally is necessary but not sufficient for XRP to break out; it needs its own catalyst, like the Rakuten integration or the Clarity Act.
XRP Price Analysis – Range Bound, Waiting for Breakout
XRP has been in a clear downtrend since late 2025, making consistent lower highs and lower lows.
The 200-day MA is sloping down, and price is still well below it (near $1.80). Long-term trend remains bearish. However, since the February capitulation (wick to $1.15), price has shifted into a sideways accumulation range rather than continuing straight down. The downtrend has paused but not reversed.
Current price is $1.38, ranging between $1.30 and $1.50 for weeks. This is low-volatility consolidation after a sharp drop – a classic base-building phase. Buyers are not aggressive, but sellers are also losing momentum.
Source: TradingVew
Key levels to watch:
Support: $1.30–$1.32 (range floor), then $1.15–$1.20 (capitulation low).
Resistance: $1.45–$1.50 (range ceiling), then $1.60–$1.65, then $1.80 (200 MA).
RSI sits around 40–47 – neutral to slightly bearish, confirming range behavior.
Related news: Ripple CTO Destroys XRP Conspiracy Theories
XRP Price Predictions
🟢 Bullish scenario: XRP breaks $1.50 with volume and holds above it. Targets: $1.60–$1.65, then $1.80 (200 MA). If momentum builds, $2.00+ is possible.
🔴 Bearish scenario: XRP loses $1.30 support. Targets: $1.20, then a potential sweep of the $1.10 lows.
⚖️ Most likely scenario (short-term): Continued range between $1.30 and $1.50. Fakeouts on both sides. Low conviction until a breakout occurs.
XRP Trading Tips
If you are trading this range, the best strategy is to buy near $1.30 and sell near $1.50. Do not chase the middle of the range – low edge.
Breakout traders should wait for a strong close above $1.50 or a breakdown below $1.30. The hidden leverage signal suggests the next move, once it comes, could be fast.
Other crypto news for you:
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Is XRP following Ripple?
XRP and Ripple are closely linked, but XRP’s price is driven by market demand, not directly controlled by Ripple. Ripple’s partnerships and news can influence sentiment, but they don’t dictate price movements.
2. Why is XRP dropping so much?
XRP has been in a broader downtrend, with selling pressure from the wider crypto market and repeated rejections at key resistance levels. Weak momentum and lack of strong catalysts have also contributed to the decline.
3. Where is Ripple based?
Ripple is based in San Francisco, California, USA. It operates globally with offices in multiple regions including the Middle East, Europe, and Asia.
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