XRP News: XRP Price Projected to Drop to $1.09, Bounce Is Over

XRP attempted a recovery rally earlier this week, riding the wave of the Iran ceasefire news. Ripple's token pumped from $1.33 to a high near $1.39. But that move failed.

Sellers stepped in, and XRP is now pulling back. Crypto analyst CasiTrades posted a new tweet today and warned that the bounce is finished and a larger down move is coming. She expects Wave 3 to target $1.09.

XRP Chart Analysis

CasiTrades wrote: "The bounce is over on XRP. Now watching for W3 down." She noted that the ceasefire push over the last several hours sent XRP perfectly into the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. On her chart, that 0.618 level sits at $1.39. Price tapped that resistance and immediately reversed.

The chart on TradingView shows XRP trading at $1.3601 on Coinbase at the time of her analysis. The 0.618 retracement from the previous down move (from roughly $1.55 to $1.09 area) lands at $1.39. Price hit that level and formed a rejection wick. That gave the market a clean Wave 2 (W2) in Elliott Wave terms.

Source: X/@CasiTrades

Below, the 0.786 retracement sits at $1.0903. That is her target for Wave 3 down. She believes the drop will accelerate fast once Wave 3 gets going.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on her chart shows a bearish signal. The RSI peaked near 75 during the bounce. That is overbought territory. Since then, the RSI has rolled over to 66.65 and then to 44.80. That downward slope confirms losing momentum. A bearish divergence may also be forming – price made a higher high near $1.39, but RSI made a lower high compared to the previous bounce. That is a classic reversal signal.

CasiTrades said the smaller subwave counts got knocked out, but the bigger structure has not changed. The real move, in her view, has not happened yet. She expects Wave 3 down toward $1.09, and she thinks the drop will accelerate fast.

The chart also shows clear support at $1.3490 (the level at the time of her post) and a deeper zone near $1.09. Resistance is now at $1.3742 and $1.39.

Read also: Blood in the Streets for XRP – Last Time This Happened, XRP Price Jumped 63%

Recent News That Could Affect XRP Price

Two developments stand out.

First, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent published a Wall Street Journal op-ed calling for Congress to pass the CLARITY Act immediately. He called the current regulatory environment "disastrously unclear" and warned that delay risks America's status as the world's financial center. The bill has strong bipartisan support and would define when a digital asset is a security, plus create a registration pathway for trading platforms. For XRP, this is bullish. High-level political momentum toward regulatory clarity reduces institutional hesitation.

Second, former Ripple executive Sagar Shah, now with Evernorth Holdings, argues that XRP Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) are a superior investment to XRP ETFs. While ETFs are passive wrappers, DATs actively deploy assets on‑chain to generate yield and foster ecosystem adoption. Evernorth, backed by Ripple, is advancing toward a Nasdaq listing. This is neutral to bullish. It shows an evolving institutional narrative beyond simple ETF exposure, creating utility‑driven demand.

All in all, XRP failed at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $1.39. RSI rolled over from 75 to 44.80, confirming bearish momentum. CasiTrades projects Wave 3 down to $1.09. Positive news on CLARITY and DATs may not stop the short‑term technical drop, but they build a stronger foundation for the next leg up.